According to a recent study conducted by Global Info Analytics, an independent opinion research firm in Ghana, presidential candidate of the NDC, John Dramani Mahama would emerge victorious in a hypothetical election held between September 21 and early October 2023, regardless of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) candidate he faces.
The study, presented in the firm’s latest monthly survey report, indicates that Mahama would secure a victory whether the NPP presents Mahamudu Bawumia or Kennedy Agyapong as their flagbearer.
Both Bawumia and Agyapong are key contenders in a four-person primary scheduled for November 4, 2023. Analysts speculate that Bawumia is likely to secure the NPP slot and subsequently face Mahama, the candidate for the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC).
The research findings were shared by the research company on October 5, 2023, via Twitter. The results indicate that “JDM leads with approximately 49%, Dr. Bawumia, 28%, and Mr. Kyeremanten, 11%. Against Agyapong and Kyeremanten, Mahama’s lead drops to approximately 47%, Agyapong, 30%, and Kyeremanten 11%.”
One noteworthy aspect of the research is the potential impact of Alan Kyerematen, who recently left the NPP and declared his intention to run as an independent candidate. The study suggests that Kyerematen’s candidacy could affect the fortunes of his former party.
Key points from the research include interviews with 6,423 individuals in 80 constituencies across all 16 regions of Ghana. The research maintained a high confidence level of 99% with a Margin of Error of 1.58%. The sample frame was based on the Electoral Commission’s 2020 voters register, with 30% of constituencies from each region randomly selected and allocated based on the total number of voters in each constituency.
Field interviews for the study were conducted between September 21 and October 1, 2023, as detailed in the Executive Summary of the report.
